Breast Cancer Risk Calculator
Gail Model Risk Estimate
Estimate 5-year and lifetime breast cancer risk using the simplified Gail model.
years
Formula
5-Year Risk = 1 - (1 - baseline_incidence × composite_RR)^5 × 100. Composite RR = RR(menarche) × RR(first birth) × RR(relatives) × RR(biopsies) × race_factor.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Gail model?
The Gail model is a statistical tool that estimates a woman's risk of developing invasive breast cancer over a 5-year period and over her lifetime. It was developed by Dr. Mitchell Gail at the National Cancer Institute and considers factors like age, reproductive history, family history, and prior biopsies.
What does a 5-year risk of 1.67% or higher mean?
A 5-year risk of 1.67% or higher is the threshold used to define 'high risk' by the National Cancer Institute. Women at this level may benefit from chemoprevention strategies (e.g., tamoxifen or raloxifene) and enhanced screening.
Does this model account for BRCA mutations?
No. The Gail model does not account for BRCA1 or BRCA2 gene mutations, nor for other hereditary cancer syndromes. Women with known genetic mutations should use specialized genetic risk models such as the Tyrer-Cuzick (IBIS) model.